ZEV mandate review puts charging investment assumptions under pressure

In Brief

The Government has opened a review of the Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate, including whether annual EV sales targets from 2027 should be reduced. The existing trajectory reaches 80% zero-emission new car sales in 2030 and 100% in 2035.

Options under consultation include reducing the 2030 car target to 70%, 60% or 50%, as well as retaining the 80% headline target while extending compliance flexibilities.

While not directly part of the consultation, the Government has acknowledged that the mandate influences demand for chargers, investor confidence and capital flows into the charging sector.

Due to that impact, charge point operators are being invited to take part in the consultation, which runs until October 23, 2026.

In Review

Once again, the UK Government has reopened the debate around the ZEV Mandate. The move follows pressure from car manufacturers, with the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders arguing that regulatory targets are moving ahead of consumer demand and that the transition needs to remain commercially sustainable.

The present mandate requires 33% of manufacturers’ new car registrations to be zero emission in 2026, rising to 38% in 2027, 52% in 2028, 66% in 2029 and 80% in 2030. The review goes well beyond a minor adjustment: one option would leave the 2030 figure at 70%, another at 60% and another at 50%, although all of the trajectories presented still reach 100% by 2035.

Watering down the ZEV Mandate might be beneficial for car manufacturers who may not want to push prices of EVs lower to drive sales, but as the Government has acknowledged in its announcement, the mandate has a significant influence on charger demand and investor confidence, and changing it could affect the investment environment for charging infrastructure. It also noted that the charging sector’s position that policy certainty has helped secure substantial private investment.

That does not mean charger projects should suddenly stop. In fact, Government policy elsewhere continues to recognise that charging capacity needs to be delivered ahead of vehicle demand, particularly where substantial electricity network upgrades are involved. What may change, however, is the commercial case for when every charger is installed and energised. A slower vehicle trajectory could weaken near-term utilisation at some sites, making phased deployment, expandable connections and realistic demand scenarios more important in procurement and investment decisions.

That investment concern is reflected in comments by David Martell, CEO of Andersen EV Plc. He questioned why the mandate was being reopened when battery-electric registrations were growing: 43,106 BEVs were registered in July, 44.5% more than in July 2025, according to SMMT data. Martell warned: “If the mandate is watered down, what incentive will there be for businesses to continue that investment?”

The problem is, there are two sides to the story. Car manufacturers are arguing that they simply want to respond to realistic demand that they can meet commercially. But do you buy that argument? After all, some car makers have been accused of dragging their feet in the EV transition, with those manufacturers strongly advocating for a watering down of the mandate. Meanwhile, other manufacturers who are already on track to meet the requirements of the ZEV Mandate, such as Hyundai, have been less vocal about changes.

Meanwhile, the changes would have a very real impact on the EV charging market, which could further impact consumer confidence in ditching ICE vehicles in favour of electric vehicles. That could mean we spiral to the bottom, rather than giving investors confidence to commit capital in building a robust EV charging network because the vehicles are coming – come hell or high water.